Saudi Arabia and three of its Arab allies cut diplomatic ties with Qatar on Monday, furious with what they see as the tiny emirate’s tolerant attitude toward Iran and Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. The moves by the Saudis, Bahrain, the U.A.E. and Egypt came barely a week after U.S. President Donald Trump visited the region and joined Saudi Arabia in lambasting Iran for sponsoring terrorism from Syria to Yemen.
Bloomberg summarized the situation on the Arab political
scene and the most important of several questions and answers as follows:
1. What’s caused the diplomatic rift?
It’s mostly, but not all, about Iran. The spark for this
flare-up was a report by the state-run Qatar News Agency that carried comments
by Qatar ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani criticizing mounting anti-Iran
sentiment. Qatari officials quickly deleted the comments, blamed them on
hackers and appealed for calm. Criticism by Saudi and U.A.E. media outlets
escalated after Sheikh Tamim phoned Iranian President Hassan Rouhani over the
weekend in apparent defiance of Saudi criticism.
2. So this is a Sunni vs Shiite tension?
Partly. The Shiite-led Islamic Republic of Iran is Sunni-led
Saudi Arabia’s main regional rival. The two major oil exporters are on opposite
sides of conflicts from Syria to Iraq. In taking diplomatic action, the Saudis
cited Qatar’s support of “terrorist groups aiming to destabilize the region,”
including the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State and al-Qaeda. They accused
Qatar of supporting “Iranian-backed terrorist groups” operating in the
kingdom’s eastern province as well as Bahrain.
3. Why is the spat taking place now?
The temperature noticeably rose following Trump’s visit. Days
after Trump and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz singled out Iran as the world’s
main sponsor of terrorism, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. accused Qatar of trying
to undermine efforts to isolate the Islamic Republic. Newspapers, clerics and
even celebrities attacked Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim; the Riyadh-based Al-Jazirah
daily accused him of stabbing his neighbors with Iran’s dagger.
4. What do analysts say?
Emboldened by closer U.S. ties under Trump, the Saudis and
the U.A.E. are seeking to crush any opposition that could weaken a united front
against Iranian influence in the Middle East. The two countries are also
putting pressure on Qatar to end its support for Islamist movements such as the
Muslim Brotherhood and the Palestinian Hamas group that rules the Gaza Strip.
5. What does Iran say?
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate cleric who was
re-elected to a second, four-year term last month, says his country is ready
for talks to resolve the crisis. At the same time, though, Iran’s Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who wields more power than Rouhani, has said the
Saudi regime faces certain demise for its policies in Yemen. In 2015, Saudi
Arabia assembled a coalition of Sunni-led countries to fight Yemeni Shiite
rebels loyal to Iran after they toppled a Gulf-backed government. The war there
continues.
6. Where else are Saudi and Iran facing off?
They are locked in proxy wars on opposite sides of conflicts
across the region from Syria to Yemen. Suspicions that cyberattacks on
government agencies in Saudi Arabia emanated from Iran threatened to elevate
tensions between the two powers in late 2016. Earlier that year, after Saudi
Arabia executed a prominent Shiite cleric, Iranian protesters set the Saudi
embassy in Tehran on fire, and Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic relations with
Iran.
7. Are disagreements with Qatar anything new?
In 2014, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Bahrain temporarily
withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar. That dispute centered on Egypt, where
Qatar had supported a Muslim Brotherhood government while the Saudis and U.A.E.
bankrolled its army-led overthrow. Qatar also hosts Hamas’s exiled leadership
as well as Taliban officials. Analysts say Saudi and its allies want to show
Qatar, a country of 2.6 million residents, that.
8. Isn’t that what Qatar tries to do?
Less so now than in the Á. During the
Arab Spring uprisings Qatar, uniquely among Middle Eastern governments, broadly
supported groups agitating for change — as long as it was outside the Persian
Gulf. Muslim Brotherhood groups have mostly \Æsince, and Qatar reeled back its support for them in 2014
when faced with diplomatic threats from its Gulf neighbors. Qatar also aspires
to be the region’s indispensable mediator. Its leaders have connections with a
wide range of parties, such as warring tribes in Libya as well as both the U.S.
and the Taliban. On the other hand, by choosing sides during the Arab Spring
revolts, it weakened its standing as a neutral party.
9. What else is Qatar known for?
It’s the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas,
has the world’s highest per-capita income ($129,700 a year), will hold the 2022
FIFA World Cup and hosts the Al Jazeera television channel. When Saudi Arabia
ejected the U.S. air operations center for the region in 2003, Qatar took it
on. Today the emirate hosts 10,000 U.S. troops. (Trump last month held talks with
Sheikh Tamim to discuss Qatar’s purchase of American military equipment, and
said the two countries have “been friends now for a long time.”)
10. What are the repercussions for markets?
Any dispute in the region will make oil markets nervous.
Internal disputes among the Gulf countries could limit their appeal to foreign
investors. Even before Trump’s visit, Citigroup said rising tensions between
the U.S. and Iran could also have “significant”’ implications for oil and
financial markets. Qatar stocks plunged more than 5 percent at the open on
Monday.
11. Why might this dispute be different?
“Internal differences and disagreements are nothing new, but
what is interesting is the timing and the somewhat unprecedented level of
pressure,” says Mehran Kamrava, director of the center for international and
regional studies at Georgetown University in Qatar, referring to the recent
Trump visit. That suggests that “Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. want nothing but
complete submission from Qatar.’’